Russians continue to trust propaganda

Why Russians consume propaganda?


  • Majority of Russians trust news from state media that project a positive image of the government with both TV and social media playing major roles

  • This can be caused by two main factors:

    • Lack of alternatives due to suppression of independent journalism \(\Rightarrow\) Brainwashing
    • (Subconscious) Preference for news that confirm citizens beliefs \(\Rightarrow\) Self-selection
  • Question: How can we reduce the effects of propaganda?

Two possible answers


  • Exposing citizens to alternative media can have minimal effects

    • Limited take-up when citizens choose to consume state media on their own
    • Lack of prior exposure limits the amount of learning from new media

  • Media literacy interventions sometimes work, but often fail or backfire

    • Especially if citizens might not trust the third party judgement (e.g. foreign researchers, NGOs)

Our approach

  • Argument: Prompting citizens to learn about features of media coverage on their own avoids:

    • Relying on others’ judgment
    • Attributing evidence to researchers’ political agenda
  • Our approach: Encourage citizens to pay attention to and compare media coverage across outlets

  • See whether this leads:

    • They notice when media do the Kremlin’s bidding?
    • They switch to less biased media?
    • They change their support for the regime?

How does it work?


  • Paying attention to media coverage can make citizens:

    1. Learn about what different outlets cover

    2. Change perceptions media outlet’s bias

    3. Seek better sources of information

    4. Change their political attitudes

  • But… it can also affect how citizens watch news!

Setting: Russia during the War


  • An autocratic regime with state control of media environment

  • The full-scale invasion in Ukraine exacerbated state media control

  • State media is heavily pro-government

  • But some more balanced media is still available

\(\Rightarrow\) Media beliefs and consumption are likely hard to shift

Study


  • 4-wave panel study among 1176 adult Russians enrolled in online panel in August-October 2023:

    • Median age is 44 y.o.; 49% are female; majority with college degree; 74% are permanently employed
  • Experiment: Random assignment to one of experimental groups at the end of wave 1

  • Intervention: Complete content-analysis tasks at the end of survey in waves 1-3

    \(\Rightarrow\) effects 2-6 weeks after last content-analysis

Timeline

Intervention

  • 4–6 news headline segments per wave from combination of three TV stations:

    • Rossiya-1 , the main state-controlled propaganda channel
    • RTVI, a private channel with moderately critical editorial policy
    • Kultura, a non-political channel that covers art, theater, architecture, etc.

  • After each video, 6 questions asking to count how many times the following was discussed:

    • Situation in Russia in a [negative/positive] tone?
    • Russian federal officials in a [negative/positive] tone?
    • Situation in other countries in a [negative/positive] tone?

April 8, 2023: RTVI vs Rossiya-1

  1. Alexei Navalny was sentenced to 19 years in prison.
  2. Unmanned aircraft attacked a naval base in Novorossiysk.
  3. Lithuania annuls the visa for the residence of more than a thousand citizens of Russia and Belarus.
  4. Landslide in Georgia.
  5. The dollar is 96, the euro is 100. The currency exchange rate in Russia is breaking new records.
  6. The Republicans will not vote for Trump if he is found guilty of the attack on the Capitol.

  1. The equipment is not new and without spare parts. The first results of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Losses in two months - more than 43,000 soldiers.
  2. The Ministry of Defense have broken through the water blockade [in Donetsk] that Kiev has set up.
  3. The IAEA mission is convinced that Russia has not mined the Zaporizhzhia Air Force. Ukraine is lying.
  4. Biden can’t allow Trump become president, otherwise he will go to prison with his son.
  5. The strongest landslide in Georgia.

Experimental conditions: Order & Composition

Kultura:

  1. Kultura (Date 1)
  2. Kultura (Date 2)
  3. Kultura (Date 3)
  4. Kultura (Date 4)
  5. …

Control group

Rossiya-1 & Kultura:

  1. Rossiya-1 (Date 1)
  2. Kultura (Date 1)
  3. Rossiya-1 (Date 2)
  4. Kultura (Date 2)
  5. …

State group

Rossiya-1 & RTVI:

  1. Rossiya-1 (Date 1)
  2. RTVI (Date 1)
  3. Rossiya-1 (Date 2)
  4. RTVI (Date 2)
  5. …

State + Independent group

Sample characteristics

Where do Russian get their news from?

Where do Russian get their news from?

Why do they choose state media?

How do they feel about government?

Does the government spend enough effort on policies?

Experimental results

Do Russians notice differences in news coverage?

  • Control group: Less knowledge about independent media coverage
  • Learning about what RTVI and Rossiya-1 cover
  • Especially for independent media in respective group

Do they learn that the state media channel is biased?

  • Control group: State media is more biased than independent
  • No change in perceptions of state media
  • But improved perceptions of independent media in respective group

Do they start to seek more independent news?

  • Control group: Likely to consume state media
  • Increased awareness of both pro-government and critical news
  • Increased consumption of both Rossiya-1 and RTVI

Did their political beliefs change?

  • Lower support for the government and stronger concerns about Ukraine

  • This happens even after exposure to Rossiya-1 coverage only!

Yet, effects depended on prior political dispositions


  • Changes in perceptions of independent media and interest in it only among Putin critics, not supporters

  • News awareness about pro-gov’t news \(\Uparrow\) mainly among supporters; critical news \(\Uparrow\) mainly among critics

  • Approval of authorities \(\Downarrow\), and concern about Ukraine \(\Uparrow\) among Putin critics

Takeaways

  • Simply asking Russians to pay attention to what state or independent media covers can change political attitudes!
  • This does not happen because of learning about bias or shifting away from the popular propaganda \(\Rightarrow\) possibly caused by the change in how media is consumed

  • The political effects are limited to those who are more critical of the government in the first place

    • Only those already skeptical (a minority) are affected by such interventions
    • Receptivity to critical information may increase only when regime support substantially weakens

References